Oscar predictions revisited

Strictly speaking, the predictions I made for the Oscars weren't calculations of the bizarre and labyrinthine mechanism by which Forrest Gump beat Pulp Fiction. That is, they weren't intended as a guide to the odds (Note to self: start Oscar pool next year). They were predictions for a just and sane world. Still, they turned out pretty well, meaning the voters did a pretty good job. I was 6/14 overall, but 6/8 for the big categories. If it weren't for The Bourne Ultimatum's sweep of the technical categories (Note to self: see Bourne Ultimatum), I would have had a really great showing.

Enough about me. For the second year in a row, the best picture of the year won best picture of the year. This has not always been the case. Let's just do it. Here's a list of great films that really, truly lost big. So, I didn't include Citizen Kane, which lost to How Green Was My Valley. A good film, even if it's no Citizen Kane. This is not even including great films that were never nominated, like Strangers on a Train, Miller's Crossing, Rosemary's Baby, or Mean Streets. Winner in parentheses.

Dodsworth (The Great Ziegfield)
Double Indemnity (Going My Way)
High Noon, The Quiet Man (The Greatest Show on Earth)
Romeo and Juliet (Oliver!)
Taxi Driver (Rocky)
Apocalypse Now (Kramer vs. Kramer)
Raging Bull (Ordinary People)
The Right Stuff (Terms of Endearment)
Goodfellas (Dances with Wolves)
Pulp Fiction (Forrest Gump)
In the Bedroom (A Beautiful Mind)

The strongest year for this category is either 1941: Seargent York, How Green Was My Valley, Citizen Kane, The Maltese Falcon, and Suspicion---or 1975: One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest, Barry Lyndon, Dog Day Afternoon, Nashville, and Jaws.

Also strong is 1953 (From Here to Eternity, Julius Caesar, Shane), 1961 (West Side Story, the Hustler, The Guns of Navarone), 1967 (as discussed in this NY Times article), 1973 (Cries and Whispers, American Graffiti, The Exorcist, The...uh... Sting), 1981 (Raiders of the Lost Ark, Reds, Chariots of Fire).

Some years are total crap: maybe Rain Man *was* the best movie of 1988! American Beauty was horrible, but would I have preferred The Green Mile?

In conclusion: the Oscars show was boring and endless, but it was a good year for movies and the major awards are not likely to be looked back upon as mistakes twenty years from now.